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Primera B · Chile
Antofagasta vs San Marcos de Arica prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 15:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Antofagasta host San Marcos de Arica in the Primera B (Chile) on 11 Oct 2026, 15:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 2.5 Goals — fewer than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.85, which the bookmaker market rated at about 52% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Antofagasta 3–0 San Marcos de Arica.
Going into the match, Antofagasta had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 19 and conceding 8. San Marcos de Arica had won 3, drawn 1 and lost 6 of their last 10, with 11 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Antofagasta's last 10 and 6 of San Marcos de Arica's last 10; 5 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Antofagasta averaged 1.93 goals scored and 0.64 conceded across 14 matches; away from home San Marcos de Arica averaged 1.33 scored and 1.50 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.01 goals from Antofagasta and 0.52 from San Marcos de Arica. From that it rates a home win at 72%, a draw at 20% and an away win at 8%, against 51%, 26% and 23% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 54%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Antofagasta (green) and San Marcos de Arica (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antofagasta | WWWDL | 1.90 | 0.80 | 60% | 50% |
| San Marcos de Arica | WWLWL | 1.10 | 1.30 | 60% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 18 May 2026 · San Marcos de Arica 1–1 Antofagasta
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 74% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 68% | 1.37 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 67% | 1.39 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 52% | 1.85 |
| BTTS Yes | 51% | 1.81 |
| Antofagasta Win | 50% | 1.75 |
| Antofagasta HT & FT | 32% | 2.88 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.50 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.