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Serie D - Girone F · Italy
Ancona vs Sporting Trestina prediction and preview
4 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Ancona host Sporting Trestina in the Serie D - Girone F (Italy) on 4 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Ancona Win — Ancona to win. It was published at odds of 1.32, which the bookmaker market rated at about 72% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Ancona 2–0 Sporting Trestina.
Going into the match, Ancona had won 4, drawn 5 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 13 and conceding 8. Sporting Trestina had won 1, drawn 4 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 10 scored and 17 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Ancona's last 10 and 4 of Sporting Trestina's last 10; 4 and 2 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Ancona averaged 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 5 matches; away from home Sporting Trestina averaged 1.00 scored and 1.60 conceded across 5.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.64 goals from Ancona and 0.53 from Sporting Trestina. From that it rates a home win at 64%, a draw at 26% and an away win at 11%, against 72%, 17% and 10% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 64%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Ancona (green) and Sporting Trestina (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ancona | DDWLW | 1.30 | 0.80 | 60% | 40% |
| Sporting Trestina | WLLDL | 1.00 | 1.70 | 40% | 20% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 78% | 1.20 |
| Ancona Win | 72% | 1.32 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 63% | 1.49 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 61% | 1.44 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 56% | 1.68 |
| BTTS No | 54% | 1.78 |
| Ancona HT & FT | 47% | 2.05 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 44% | 2.18 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.