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Coppa Italia Serie D · Italy
Ancona vs Fossombrone prediction and preview
7 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Ancona host Fossombrone in the Coppa Italia Serie D (Italy) on 7 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Ancona Win — Ancona to win. It was published at odds of 1.45, which the bookmaker market rated at about 62% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Ancona 1–1 Fossombrone.
Going into the match, Ancona had won 4, drawn 5 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 13 and conceding 7. Fossombrone had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 10 scored and 16 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Ancona's last 10 and 4 of Fossombrone's last 10; 3 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Ancona averaged 1.50 goals scored and 0.83 conceded across 6 matches; away from home Fossombrone averaged 0.71 scored and 1.00 conceded across 7.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.83 goals from Ancona and 1.07 from Fossombrone. From that it rates a home win at 54%, a draw at 25% and an away win at 21%, against 62%, 23% and 16% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 54%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Ancona (green) and Fossombrone (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ancona | WDDWL | 1.30 | 0.70 | 50% | 30% |
| Fossombrone | WDLWL | 1.00 | 1.60 | 40% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 12 Apr 2026 · Fossombrone 1–2 Ancona
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.34 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.38 |
| Ancona Win | 62% | 1.45 |
| BTTS No | 53% | 1.73 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 51% | 1.85 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 49% | 1.95 |
| Ancona HT & FT | 42% | 2.20 |
| 2-0 | 14% | 6.50 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.