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Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 · Spain
Amorebieta vs Portugalete prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Amorebieta host Portugalete in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 (Spain) on 10 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 1X — Amorebieta to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.25, which the bookmaker market rated at about 73% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Amorebieta 1–2 Portugalete.
Going into the match, Amorebieta had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 12 and conceding 11. Portugalete had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 15 scored and 12 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Amorebieta's last 10 and 6 of Portugalete's last 10; 3 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Amorebieta averaged 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded across 5 matches; away from home Portugalete averaged 1.40 scored and 1.80 conceded across 5.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.90 goals from Amorebieta and 0.89 from Portugalete. From that it rates a home win at 33%, a draw at 36% and an away win at 32%, against 45%, 28% and 27% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 68%.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amorebieta | WLWLD | 1.20 | 1.10 | 40% | 30% |
| Portugalete | LLWDW | 1.50 | 1.20 | 60% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 73% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 70% | 1.32 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 64% | 1.45 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 57% | 1.65 |
| BTTS No | 51% | 1.81 |
| Amorebieta Win | 44% | 2.00 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 43% | 2.20 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.25 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.