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Ligue 3 · France
Amiens vs Villefranche prediction and preview
3 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Amiens host Villefranche in the Ligue 3 (France) on 3 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.33, which the bookmaker market rated at about 71% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Amiens 3–0 Villefranche.
Going into the match, Amiens had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 14 and conceding 4. Villefranche had won 1, drawn 2 and lost 7 of their last 10, with 11 scored and 26 conceded.
Both teams scored in 2 of Amiens's last 10 and 6 of Villefranche's last 10; 3 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Amiens averaged 1.33 goals scored and 1.25 conceded across 12 matches; away from home Villefranche averaged 0.89 scored and 2.89 conceded across 9.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.55 goals from Amiens and 0.69 from Villefranche. From that it rates a home win at 77%, a draw at 16% and an away win at 7%, against 53%, 26% and 21% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 59%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Amiens (green) and Villefranche (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amiens | DWDWW | 1.40 | 0.40 | 20% | 30% |
| Villefranche | LLDLL | 1.10 | 2.60 | 60% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 73% | 1.25 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 73% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 69% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 67% | 1.40 |
| BTTS No | 54% | 1.73 |
| Amiens Win | 53% | 1.70 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 51% | 1.85 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.