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Serie B · Brazil
America Mineiro vs Fortaleza EC prediction and preview
7 Oct 2026, 23:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
America Mineiro host Fortaleza EC in the Serie B (Brazil) on 7 Oct 2026, 23:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.30, which the bookmaker market rated at about 72% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: America Mineiro 0–1 Fortaleza EC.
Going into the match, America Mineiro had won 2, drawn 0 and lost 8 of their last 10 matches, scoring 6 and conceding 19. Fortaleza EC had won 4, drawn 6 and lost 0 of their last 10, with 12 scored and 7 conceded.
Both teams scored in 3 of America Mineiro's last 10 and 6 of Fortaleza EC's last 10; 5 and 2 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home America Mineiro averaged 1.00 goals scored and 1.38 conceded across 16 matches; away from home Fortaleza EC averaged 0.81 scored and 0.86 conceded across 21.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.64 goals from America Mineiro and 1.25 from Fortaleza EC. From that it rates a home win at 18%, a draw at 32% and an away win at 50%, against 23%, 28% and 49% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 58%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between America Mineiro (green) and Fortaleza EC (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| America Mineiro | LLLLW | 0.60 | 1.90 | 30% | 50% |
| Fortaleza EC | DDWDW | 1.20 | 0.70 | 60% | 20% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 17 Jun 2026 · Fortaleza EC 0–3 America Mineiro
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance X2 | 78% | 1.22 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 69% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 67% | 1.40 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 54% | 1.75 |
| Under 10.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| BTTS Yes | 50% | 1.83 |
| Fortaleza EC Win | 49% | 1.90 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.