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Primera A · Colombia
America de Cali vs Independiente Medellin prediction and preview
12 Oct 2026, 01:15 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
America de Cali host Independiente Medellin in the Primera A (Colombia) on 12 Oct 2026, 01:15 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.33, which the bookmaker market rated at about 72% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: America de Cali 1–2 Independiente Medellin.
Going into the match, America de Cali had won 6, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 18 and conceding 8. Independiente Medellin had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 16 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of America de Cali's last 10 and 6 of Independiente Medellin's last 10; 5 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home America de Cali averaged 2.14 goals scored and 0.64 conceded across 14 matches; away from home Independiente Medellin averaged 1.54 scored and 1.46 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.80 goals from America de Cali and 0.84 from Independiente Medellin. From that it rates a home win at 59%, a draw at 25% and an away win at 16%, against 54%, 27% and 20% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 73%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between America de Cali (green) and Independiente Medellin (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| America de Cali | WWDLW | 1.80 | 0.80 | 50% | 50% |
| Independiente Medellin | LDLWD | 1.60 | 1.30 | 60% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 74% | 1.28 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 72% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 72% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| America de Cali Win | 52% | 1.75 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 52% | 1.85 |
| BTTS Yes | 51% | 1.83 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.