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Segunda Liga · Portugal
Amarante vs Portimonense prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Amarante host Portimonense in the Segunda Liga (Portugal) on 10 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 67% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Amarante 1–2 Portimonense.
Going into the match, Amarante had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 13. Portimonense had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 9 scored and 9 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Amarante's last 10 and 3 of Portimonense's last 10; 5 and 1 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Amarante averaged 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 5 matches; away from home Portimonense averaged 0.63 scored and 0.88 conceded across 8.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.90 goals from Amarante and 1.19 from Portimonense. From that it rates a home win at 27%, a draw at 32% and an away win at 41%, against 36%, 30% and 33% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 63%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Amarante (green) and Portimonense (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amarante | WDLWD | 1.10 | 1.30 | 50% | 50% |
| Portimonense | WLLLD | 0.90 | 0.90 | 30% | 10% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Double Chance 12 | 70% | 1.33 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 67% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
| Under 9.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| BTTS No | 51% | 1.80 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 42% | 2.25 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.