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Non League Premier - Southern Central · England
Alvechurch vs Bury Town prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Alvechurch host Bury Town in the Non League Premier - Southern Central (England) on 10 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.79, which the bookmaker market rated at about 51% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Alvechurch 0–1 Bury Town.
Going into the match, Alvechurch had won 7, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 20 and conceding 6. Bury Town had won 6, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 20 scored and 21 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Alvechurch's last 10 and 7 of Bury Town's last 10; 6 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Alvechurch averaged 1.82 goals scored and 0.55 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Bury Town averaged 2.27 scored and 1.73 conceded across 11.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.03 goals from Alvechurch and 0.87 from Bury Town. From that it rates a home win at 63%, a draw at 22% and an away win at 14%, against 47%, 26% and 26% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 52%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Alvechurch (green) and Bury Town (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvechurch | WDLDW | 2.00 | 0.60 | 40% | 60% |
| Bury Town | LDWLW | 2.00 | 2.10 | 70% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 73% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 69% | 1.34 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 65% | 1.41 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 53% | 1.95 |
| BTTS Yes | 51% | 1.79 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 47% | 1.85 |
| Alvechurch Win | 46% | 1.90 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.40 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.