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Segunda División · Spain
Almeria vs Leganes prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 14:15 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Almeria host Leganes in the Segunda División (Spain) on 11 Oct 2026, 14:15 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 65% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Almeria 3–0 Leganes.
Going into the match, Almeria had won 8, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 19 and conceding 5. Leganes had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 9 scored and 11 conceded.
Both teams scored in 2 of Almeria's last 10 and 2 of Leganes's last 10; 4 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Almeria averaged 2.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded across 10 matches; away from home Leganes averaged 0.54 scored and 1.62 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.71 goals from Almeria and 0.44 from Leganes. From that it rates a home win at 68%, a draw at 24% and an away win at 8%, against 58%, 25% and 17% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 83%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Almeria (green) and Leganes (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 78% | 1.22 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 78% | 1.20 |
| Double Chance 12 | 77% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| Almeria Win | 57% | 1.62 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 56% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.