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Segunda División · Spain
Almeria vs Burgos prediction and preview
3 Oct 2026, 14:15 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Almeria host Burgos in the Segunda División (Spain) on 3 Oct 2026, 14:15 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.33, which the bookmaker market rated at about 71% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Almeria 2–1 Burgos.
Going into the match, Almeria had won 7, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 17 and conceding 5. Burgos had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 12 scored and 10 conceded.
Both teams scored in 1 of Almeria's last 10 and 4 of Burgos's last 10; 3 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Almeria averaged 2.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded across 9 matches; away from home Burgos averaged 0.88 scored and 0.63 conceded across 8.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.15 goals from Almeria and 0.62 from Burgos. From that it rates a home win at 47%, a draw at 34% and an away win at 19%, against 59%, 26% and 15% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 90%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Almeria (green) and Burgos (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 9 May 2026 · Burgos 0–0 Almeria
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 74% | 1.28 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 73% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| Almeria Win | 59% | 1.60 |
| Under 9.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| BTTS No | 51% | 1.80 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 51% | 1.85 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.