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Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Spain
Almería II vs Málaga II prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Almería II host Málaga II in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 (Spain) on 11 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 1X — Almería II to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.24, which the bookmaker market rated at about 73% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Almería II 2–1 Málaga II.
Going into the match, Almería II had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 9 matches, scoring 14 and conceding 12. Málaga II had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 9, with 18 scored and 15 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Almería II's last 9 and 5 of Málaga II's last 9; 4 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Almería II averaged 2.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded across 4 matches; away from home Málaga II averaged 0.75 scored and 2.25 conceded across 4.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.74 goals from Almería II and 1.09 from Málaga II. From that it rates a home win at 52%, a draw at 26% and an away win at 23%, against 45%, 28% and 27% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 78%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Almería II (green) and Málaga II (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almería II | DWLWW | 1.56 | 1.33 | 56% | 44% |
| Málaga II | WWDWL | 2.00 | 1.67 | 56% | 67% |
Averages over each side's last 9 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 73% | 1.24 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 67% | 1.35 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 67% | 1.35 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 54% | 1.75 |
| BTTS Yes | 51% | 1.79 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 46% | 2.05 |
| Almería II Win | 45% | 2.00 |
| Almería II HT & FT | 29% | 3.25 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.