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Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Spain
Almansa vs Marchamalo prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Almansa host Marchamalo in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 (Spain) on 10 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 12 — either side to win, with no draw. It was published at odds of 1.25, which the bookmaker market rated at about 72% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Almansa 3–1 Marchamalo.
Going into the match, Almansa had won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches, scoring 8 and conceding 5. Marchamalo had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 14 scored and 12 conceded.
Both teams scored in 2 of Almansa's last 5 and 3 of Marchamalo's last 10; 3 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Almansa averaged 3.00 goals scored and 0.50 conceded across 2 matches; away from home Marchamalo averaged 1.33 scored and 1.00 conceded across 6.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.46 goals from Almansa and 0.94 from Marchamalo. From that it rates a home win at 48%, a draw at 29% and an away win at 23%, against 41%, 28% and 31% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 71%.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almansa | LWDWL | 1.60 | 1.00 | 40% | 60% |
| Marchamalo | DLDWW | 1.40 | 1.20 | 30% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 72% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 68% | 1.35 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 54% | 1.75 |
| BTTS Yes | 52% | 1.77 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 46% | 2.05 |
| Almansa Win | 41% | 2.20 |
| 1-0 | 12% | 8.00 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.