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Primera Nacional · Argentina
Almagro vs Chacarita Juniors prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 18:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Almagro host Chacarita Juniors in the Primera Nacional (Argentina) on 10 Oct 2026, 18:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 1X — Almagro to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.36, which the bookmaker market rated at about 70% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Almagro 2–1 Chacarita Juniors.
Going into the match, Almagro had won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 8 and conceding 14. Chacarita Juniors had won 2, drawn 1 and lost 7 of their last 10, with 6 scored and 10 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Almagro's last 10 and 2 of Chacarita Juniors's last 10; 4 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Almagro averaged 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 13 matches; away from home Chacarita Juniors averaged 0.38 scored and 1.31 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.14 goals from Almagro and 0.72 from Chacarita Juniors. From that it rates a home win at 44%, a draw at 34% and an away win at 22%, against 39%, 32% and 29% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 78%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Almagro (green) and Chacarita Juniors (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almagro | WLLDL | 0.80 | 1.40 | 50% | 40% |
| Chacarita Juniors | WLWLL | 0.60 | 1.00 | 20% | 30% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 24 May 2026 · Chacarita Juniors 1–0 Almagro
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 77% | 1.22 |
| Double Chance 1X | 70% | 1.36 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 59% | 1.57 |
| BTTS No | 58% | 1.57 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| Under 1.5 Goals | 41% | 2.25 |
| Almagro Win | 38% | 2.40 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.