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League One · Scotland
Alloa Athletic vs Hamilton Academical prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Alloa Athletic host Hamilton Academical in the League One (Scotland) on 10 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.36, which the bookmaker market rated at about 68% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Alloa Athletic 0–3 Hamilton Academical.
Going into the match, Alloa Athletic had won 3, drawn 4 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 16 and conceding 13. Hamilton Academical had won 8, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 10, with 20 scored and 3 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Alloa Athletic's last 10 and 2 of Hamilton Academical's last 10; 5 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Alloa Athletic averaged 1.81 goals scored and 1.25 conceded across 16 matches; away from home Hamilton Academical averaged 2.00 scored and 0.69 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.69 goals from Alloa Athletic and 1.59 from Hamilton Academical. From that it rates a home win at 15%, a draw at 27% and an away win at 58%, against 24%, 25% and 52% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 80%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Alloa Athletic (green) and Hamilton Academical (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alloa Athletic | LDWLL | 1.60 | 1.30 | 70% | 50% |
| Hamilton Academical | WWWWW | 2.00 | 0.30 | 20% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 8 Aug 2026 · Hamilton Academical 1–0 Alloa Athletic
- 11 Apr 2026 · Hamilton Academical 1–0 Alloa Athletic
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 76% | 1.25 |
| Double Chance 12 | 75% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| BTTS Yes | 54% | 1.73 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 53% | 1.80 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.