Alianza vs Firpo prediction and preview

4 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC

The PunterPick prediction

Double Chance 12Odds 1.28Market probability 72%Final score 2–2

Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.

Match preview

Alianza host Firpo in the Primera Division (El Salvador) on 4 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 12 — either side to win, with no draw. It was published at odds of 1.28, which the bookmaker market rated at about 72% once the bookmaker margin is removed.

Final score: Alianza 2–2 Firpo.

Going into the match, Alianza had won 3, drawn 5 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 14 and conceding 15. Firpo had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 14 scored and 13 conceded.

Both teams scored in 6 of Alianza's last 10 and 4 of Firpo's last 10; 6 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Alianza averaged 1.43 goals scored and 1.14 conceded across 14 matches; away from home Firpo averaged 1.31 scored and 1.15 conceded across 13.

Our team-strength model expects about 0.97 goals from Alianza and 1.37 from Firpo. From that it rates a home win at 25%, a draw at 30% and an away win at 45%, against 36%, 28% and 36% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 70%.

Team comparison

Share of each factor between Alianza (green) and Firpo (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.

Recent form47% – 53%

Attack53% – 47%

Defence27% – 73%

Head-to-head29% – 71%

Goals57% – 43%

Overall strength44% – 55%

Form before the match

Team	Last 5	Scored	Conceded	BTTS	O2.5
Alianza	WDDWD	1.40	1.50	60%	60%
Firpo	WWDWL	1.40	1.30	40%	70%

Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.

Other markets we priced

Market	Our probability	Odds
Double Chance 12	72%	1.28
1st Half Under 1.5 Goals	68%	1.36
1st Half Over 0.5 Goals	66%	1.40
Over 9.5 Corners	54%	1.73
Under 2.5 Goals	53%	1.80
BTTS Yes	52%	1.77
Over 2.5 Goals	47%	2.00
Alianza Win	36%	2.50

Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.