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Primera A · Colombia
Alianza Valledupar vs Águilas Doradas prediction and preview
9 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Alianza Valledupar host Águilas Doradas in the Primera A (Colombia) on 9 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.36, which the bookmaker market rated at about 68% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Alianza Valledupar 2–2 Águilas Doradas.
Going into the match, Alianza Valledupar had won 3, drawn 1 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches, scoring 8 and conceding 19. Águilas Doradas had won 2, drawn 5 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 12 scored and 14 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Alianza Valledupar's last 10 and 6 of Águilas Doradas's last 10; 6 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Alianza Valledupar averaged 1.27 goals scored and 1.73 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Águilas Doradas averaged 1.33 scored and 1.56 conceded across 9.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.25 goals from Alianza Valledupar and 1.51 from Águilas Doradas. From that it rates a home win at 30%, a draw at 28% and an away win at 42%, against 37%, 31% and 32% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 78%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Alianza Valledupar (green) and Águilas Doradas (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alianza Valledupar | LWLWW | 0.80 | 1.90 | 50% | 60% |
| Águilas Doradas | WLLDL | 1.20 | 1.40 | 60% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| Double Chance 12 | 70% | 1.36 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 57% | 1.67 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| BTTS Yes | 50% | 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 43% | 2.15 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.