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Premier League · Kyrgyzstan
Alga vs Ilbirs prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Alga host Ilbirs in the Premier League (Kyrgyzstan) on 17 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.48, which the bookmaker market rated at about 62% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Alga 6–0 Ilbirs.
Going into the match, Alga had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 16 and conceding 14. Ilbirs had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 15 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 8 of Alga's last 10 and 5 of Ilbirs's last 10; 7 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Alga averaged 1.82 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Ilbirs averaged 1.00 scored and 2.22 conceded across 9.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.13 goals from Alga and 0.85 from Ilbirs. From that it rates a home win at 66%, a draw at 21% and an away win at 13%, against 65%, 20% and 15% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 57%.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.22 |
| Alga Win | 65% | 1.39 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 62% | 1.48 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 61% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 56% | 1.63 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 54% | 1.68 |
| Over 3.5 Goals | 39% | 2.34 |
| 2-1 | 12% | 7.80 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.