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Non League Premier - Northern · England
Alfreton Town vs United of Manchester prediction and preview
6 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Alfreton Town host United of Manchester in the Non League Premier - Northern (England) on 6 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.55, which the bookmaker market rated at about 59% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Alfreton Town 1–0 United of Manchester.
Going into the match, Alfreton Town had won 4, drawn 0 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches, scoring 14 and conceding 14. United of Manchester had won 4, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 23 scored and 16 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Alfreton Town's last 10 and 7 of United of Manchester's last 10; 6 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Alfreton Town averaged 1.25 goals scored and 1.63 conceded across 16 matches; away from home United of Manchester averaged 1.92 scored and 1.54 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.29 goals from Alfreton Town and 1.29 from United of Manchester. From that it rates a home win at 36%, a draw at 29% and an away win at 36%, against 47%, 25% and 28% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 54%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Alfreton Town (green) and United of Manchester (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfreton Town | LWWLL | 1.40 | 1.40 | 50% | 60% |
| United of Manchester | WLWWW | 2.30 | 1.60 | 70% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 75% | 1.22 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 73% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 60% | 1.51 |
| BTTS Yes | 59% | 1.55 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| Alfreton Town Win | 47% | 1.91 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 44% | 2.15 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.