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Non League Premier - Northern · England
Alfreton Town vs Bury prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Alfreton Town host Bury in the Non League Premier - Northern (England) on 10 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 60% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Alfreton Town 2–3 Bury.
Going into the match, Alfreton Town had won 5, drawn 0 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 14 and conceding 12. Bury had won 6, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 31 scored and 9 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Alfreton Town's last 10 and 4 of Bury's last 10; 5 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Alfreton Town averaged 1.24 goals scored and 1.53 conceded across 17 matches; away from home Bury averaged 1.13 scored and 1.00 conceded across 8.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.87 goals from Alfreton Town and 1.94 from Bury. From that it rates a home win at 15%, a draw at 23% and an away win at 62%, against 30%, 24% and 46% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 51%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Alfreton Town (green) and Bury (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfreton Town | WLWWL | 1.40 | 1.20 | 40% | 50% |
| Bury | LWDWW | 3.10 | 0.90 | 40% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 75% | 1.22 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 74% | 1.24 |
| BTTS Yes | 60% | 1.50 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 59% | 1.56 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 58% | 1.70 |
| Bury Win | 47% | 1.95 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 42% | 2.10 |
| Bury HT & FT | 30% | 3.10 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.