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Liga de Expansión MX · Mexico
Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Correcaminos Uat prediction and preview
9 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Alebrijes de Oaxaca host Correcaminos Uat in the Liga de Expansión MX (Mexico) on 9 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 64% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Alebrijes de Oaxaca 2–1 Correcaminos Uat.
Going into the match, Alebrijes de Oaxaca had won 3, drawn 1 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches, scoring 8 and conceding 19. Correcaminos Uat had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 16 scored and 15 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Alebrijes de Oaxaca's last 10 and 7 of Correcaminos Uat's last 10; 5 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Alebrijes de Oaxaca averaged 0.83 goals scored and 1.33 conceded across 6 matches; away from home Correcaminos Uat averaged 2.00 scored and 2.50 conceded across 6.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.47 goals from Alebrijes de Oaxaca and 1.33 from Correcaminos Uat. From that it rates a home win at 39%, a draw at 28% and an away win at 33%, against 19%, 20% and 61% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 53%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Alebrijes de Oaxaca (green) and Correcaminos Uat (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alebrijes de Oaxaca | LLLWL | 0.80 | 1.90 | 40% | 50% |
| Correcaminos Uat | DWLDL | 1.60 | 1.50 | 70% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 18 Apr 2026 · Correcaminos Uat 1–3 Alebrijes de Oaxaca
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance X2 | 78% | 1.22 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 72% | 1.28 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 64% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 62% | 1.46 |
| Correcaminos Uat Win | 56% | 1.53 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 56% | 1.69 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| Correcaminos Uat HT & FT | 38% | 2.50 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.