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National League · England
Aldershot Town vs Carlisle prediction and preview
3 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Aldershot Town host Carlisle in the National League (England) on 3 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 63% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Aldershot Town 1–3 Carlisle.
Going into the match, Aldershot Town had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 15 and conceding 12. Carlisle had won 3, drawn 4 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 18 scored and 16 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Aldershot Town's last 10 and 8 of Carlisle's last 10; 5 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Aldershot Town averaged 1.31 goals scored and 1.38 conceded across 13 matches; away from home Carlisle averaged 1.63 scored and 0.88 conceded across 8.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.51 goals from Aldershot Town and 1.34 from Carlisle. From that it rates a home win at 40%, a draw at 27% and an away win at 33%, against 26%, 24% and 49% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 54%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Aldershot Town (green) and Carlisle (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aldershot Town | LWLDW | 1.50 | 1.20 | 70% | 50% |
| Carlisle | WLLDD | 1.80 | 1.60 | 80% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 75% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 75% | 1.25 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 73% | 1.28 |
| BTTS Yes | 63% | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
| Under 10.5 Corners | 56% | 1.67 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.