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Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Spain
Alcorcon vs Juventud Torremolinos prediction and preview
3 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Alcorcon host Juventud Torremolinos in the Primera División RFEF - Group 2 (Spain) on 3 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.25, which the bookmaker market rated at about 75% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Alcorcon 5–0 Juventud Torremolinos.
Going into the match, Alcorcon had won 3, drawn 5 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 13 and conceding 9. Juventud Torremolinos had won 1, drawn 2 and lost 7 of their last 10, with 10 scored and 19 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Alcorcon's last 10 and 6 of Juventud Torremolinos's last 10; 4 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Alcorcon averaged 2.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 7 matches; away from home Juventud Torremolinos averaged 0.67 scored and 1.33 conceded across 9.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.28 goals from Alcorcon and 0.80 from Juventud Torremolinos. From that it rates a home win at 70%, a draw at 19% and an away win at 11%, against 66%, 22% and 12% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 82%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Alcorcon (green) and Juventud Torremolinos (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alcorcon | WWDDD | 1.30 | 0.90 | 60% | 40% |
| Juventud Torremolinos | LLLLD | 1.00 | 1.90 | 60% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 75% | 1.25 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 69% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| Alcorcon Win | 66% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| BTTS No | 56% | 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 51% | 1.85 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 49% | 1.95 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.