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J2 League · Japan
Albirex Niigata vs Tokushima Vortis prediction and preview
3 Oct 2026, 05:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Albirex Niigata host Tokushima Vortis in the J2 League (Japan) on 3 Oct 2026, 05:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 66% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Albirex Niigata 2–1 Tokushima Vortis.
Going into the match, Albirex Niigata had won 6, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 13 and conceding 17. Tokushima Vortis had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 11 scored and 11 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Albirex Niigata's last 10 and 2 of Tokushima Vortis's last 10; 7 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Albirex Niigata averaged 1.29 goals scored and 0.93 conceded across 14 matches; away from home Tokushima Vortis averaged 1.18 scored and 1.82 conceded across 11.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.46 goals from Albirex Niigata and 1.08 from Tokushima Vortis. From that it rates a home win at 45%, a draw at 29% and an away win at 27%, against 37%, 30% and 33% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 73%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Albirex Niigata (green) and Tokushima Vortis (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albirex Niigata | LDWWL | 1.30 | 1.70 | 50% | 70% |
| Tokushima Vortis | WLWLW | 1.10 | 1.10 | 20% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 6 May 2026 · Albirex Niigata 1–0 Tokushima Vortis
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Double Chance 12 | 69% | 1.36 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
| BTTS No | 51% | 1.80 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 42% | 2.25 |
| Albirex Niigata Win | 37% | 2.50 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.