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La Liga · Spain
Alaves vs Malaga prediction and preview
23 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Alaves host Malaga in the La Liga (Spain) on 23 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Alaves Win — Alaves to win. It was published at odds of 1.65, which the bookmaker market rated at about 56% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Alaves had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 14 and conceding 11. Malaga had won 0, drawn 5 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 8 scored and 20 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Alaves's last 10 and 6 of Malaga's last 10; 5 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Alaves averaged 1.82 goals scored and 1.18 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Malaga averaged 1.55 scored and 1.55 conceded across 11.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.73 goals from Alaves and 0.89 from Malaga. From that it rates a home win at 56%, a draw at 26% and an away win at 18%, against 57%, 26% and 16% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 56%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Alaves (green) and Malaga (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 75% | 1.28 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 69% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 67% | 1.40 |
| Alaves Win | 56% | 1.65 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 54% | 1.80 |
| BTTS No | 52% | 1.80 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 46% | 2.00 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.