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La Liga · Spain
Alaves vs Atletico Madrid prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 14:15 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Alaves host Atletico Madrid in the La Liga (Spain) on 10 Oct 2026, 14:15 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.25, which the bookmaker market rated at about 75% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Alaves 1–2 Atletico Madrid.
Going into the match, Alaves had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 16 and conceding 7. Atletico Madrid had won 6, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 20 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Alaves's last 10 and 6 of Atletico Madrid's last 10; 4 and 9 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Alaves averaged 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded across 10 matches; away from home Atletico Madrid averaged 1.50 scored and 1.71 conceded across 14.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.99 goals from Alaves and 1.22 from Atletico Madrid. From that it rates a home win at 29%, a draw at 32% and an away win at 40%, against 23%, 25% and 53% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 66%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Alaves (green) and Atletico Madrid (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaves | DLLWW | 1.60 | 0.70 | 40% | 40% |
| Atletico Madrid | WWWLL | 2.00 | 1.30 | 60% | 90% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance X2 | 78% | 1.22 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 75% | 1.25 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 69% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| BTTS Yes | 54% | 1.75 |
| Atletico Madrid Win | 52% | 1.80 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 52% | 1.80 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.