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AFC Challenge League · International
Al Nejmeh vs Istiqlol prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Al Nejmeh host Istiqlol in the AFC Challenge League (International) on 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Draw — a draw. It was published at odds of 3.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 27% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Al Nejmeh 1–0 Istiqlol.
Going into the match, Al Nejmeh had won 6, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 16 and conceding 8. Istiqlol had won 7, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 13 scored and 3 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Al Nejmeh's last 10 and 1 of Istiqlol's last 10; 4 and 2 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Al Nejmeh averaged 2.27 goals scored and 0.82 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Istiqlol averaged 1.22 scored and 0.44 conceded across 9.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.84 goals from Al Nejmeh and 0.66 from Istiqlol. From that it rates a home win at 36%, a draw at 39% and an away win at 25%, against 26%, 27% and 48% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 39%.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance X2 | 75% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 68% | 1.35 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 67% | 1.38 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 53% | 1.80 |
| BTTS Yes | 51% | 1.80 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 47% | 2.00 |
| Istiqlol HT & FT | 31% | 3.00 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other AFC Challenge League matches that day
- Goa vs Regar-TadAZ · 17 Oct 2026, 13:25 UTC · AFC Challenge League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.61 - Ahal vs Paro · 17 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC · AFC Challenge League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.40