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AFC Champions League Elite · International
Al-Nassr vs Neftchi prediction and preview
12 Oct 2026, 18:15 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Al-Nassr host Neftchi in the AFC Champions League Elite (International) on 12 Oct 2026, 18:15 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Al-Nassr Win — Al-Nassr to win. It was published at odds of 1.22, which the bookmaker market rated at about 77% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Al-Nassr 3–1 Neftchi.
Going into the match, Al-Nassr had won 7, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 23 and conceding 12. Neftchi had won 7, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 21 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Al-Nassr's last 10 and 4 of Neftchi's last 10; 9 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Al-Nassr averaged 2.09 goals scored and 0.73 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Neftchi averaged 1.60 scored and 1.50 conceded across 10.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.43 goals from Al-Nassr and 1.53 from Neftchi. From that it rates a home win at 57%, a draw at 21% and an away win at 23%, against 75%, 13% and 11% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 57%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Al-Nassr (green) and Neftchi (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 78% | 1.20 |
| Al-Nassr Win | 77% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 77% | 1.20 |
| Al-Nassr HT & FT | 57% | 1.67 |
| Al-Nassr 1st Half Win | 57% | 1.57 |
| Under 10.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| BTTS Yes | 51% | 1.83 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 51% | 1.80 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.