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Iraqi League · Iraq
Al Minaa Basra vs Ghaz Al Shamal prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Al Minaa Basra host Ghaz Al Shamal in the Iraqi League (Iraq) on 10 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 1X — Al Minaa Basra to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.22, which the bookmaker market rated at about 74% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Al Minaa Basra 2–0 Ghaz Al Shamal.
Going into the match, Al Minaa Basra had won 2, drawn 5 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 9 and conceding 11. Ghaz Al Shamal had won 1, drawn 5 and lost 2 of their last 8, with 4 scored and 5 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Al Minaa Basra's last 10 and 3 of Ghaz Al Shamal's last 8; 4 and 0 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Al Minaa Basra averaged 1.36 goals scored and 1.18 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Ghaz Al Shamal averaged 0.60 scored and 0.60 conceded across 5.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.82 goals from Al Minaa Basra and 0.69 from Ghaz Al Shamal. From that it rates a home win at 34%, a draw at 39% and an away win at 27%, against 45%, 30% and 25% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 73%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Al Minaa Basra (green) and Ghaz Al Shamal (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Minaa Basra | DLDLL | 0.90 | 1.10 | 50% | 40% |
| Ghaz Al Shamal | DDDLW | 0.50 | 0.63 | 38% | 0% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 74% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 73% | 1.24 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 62% | 1.50 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 60% | 1.50 |
| BTTS No | 56% | 1.64 |
| Al Minaa Basra Win | 45% | 2.00 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 38% | 2.50 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.00 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.