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AFC Champions League Elite · International
Al-Gharafa vs Esteghlal FC prediction and preview
12 Oct 2026, 18:15 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Al-Gharafa host Esteghlal FC in the AFC Champions League Elite (International) on 12 Oct 2026, 18:15 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 64% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Al-Gharafa 1–2 Esteghlal FC.
Going into the match, Al-Gharafa had won 2, drawn 2 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches, scoring 15 and conceding 21. Esteghlal FC had won 5, drawn 4 and lost 0 of their last 9, with 13 scored and 2 conceded.
Both teams scored in 9 of Al-Gharafa's last 10 and 2 of Esteghlal FC's last 9; 9 and 2 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Al-Gharafa averaged 2.00 goals scored and 1.29 conceded across 7 matches; away from home Esteghlal FC averaged 0.50 scored and 0.25 conceded across 4.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.58 goals from Al-Gharafa and 1.67 from Esteghlal FC. From that it rates a home win at 12%, a draw at 26% and an away win at 63%, against 34%, 28% and 38% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 81%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Al-Gharafa (green) and Esteghlal FC (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al-Gharafa | LWLDL | 1.50 | 2.10 | 90% | 90% |
| Esteghlal FC | DWWDD | 1.44 | 0.22 | 22% | 22% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 78% | 1.20 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 77% | 1.22 |
| Double Chance 12 | 73% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 64% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 60% | 1.57 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 57% | 1.70 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.