Al-Gharafa vs Al Ahli Doha prediction and preview

22 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC

The PunterPick prediction

BTTS YesOdds 1.44Market probability 66%Final score 2–2

Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.

Match preview

Al-Gharafa host Al Ahli Doha in the Stars League (Qatar) on 22 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 66% once the bookmaker margin is removed.

Final score: Al-Gharafa 2–2 Al Ahli Doha.

Going into the match, Al-Gharafa had won 2, drawn 2 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches, scoring 13 and conceding 19. Al Ahli Doha had won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 14 scored and 20 conceded.

Both teams scored in 8 of Al-Gharafa's last 10 and 4 of Al Ahli Doha's last 10; 8 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Al-Gharafa averaged 1.67 goals scored and 1.22 conceded across 9 matches; away from home Al Ahli Doha averaged 1.29 scored and 2.71 conceded across 7.

Our team-strength model expects about 1.78 goals from Al-Gharafa and 1.47 from Al Ahli Doha. From that it rates a home win at 44%, a draw at 25% and an away win at 31%, against 45%, 22% and 33% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 65%.

Team comparison

Share of each factor between Al-Gharafa (green) and Al Ahli Doha (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.

Recent form22% – 78%

Attack31% – 69%

Defence47% – 53%

Head-to-head60% – 40%

Goals53% – 47%

Overall strength49% – 50%

Form before the match

Team	Last 5	Scored	Conceded	BTTS	O2.5
Al-Gharafa	DLLWL	1.30	1.90	80%	80%
Al Ahli Doha	LWDLL	1.40	2.00	40%	70%

Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.

Other markets we priced

Market	Our probability	Odds
1st Half Over 0.5 Goals	76%	1.22
BTTS 1st Half - No	72%	1.30
Double Chance 1X	70%	1.36
BTTS Yes	66%	1.44
Over 2.5 Goals	65%	1.44
1st Half Under 1.5 Goals	56%	1.67
Under 3.5 Goals	55%	1.67
Al-Gharafa Win	48%	2.00

Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.