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Premier League · Russia
Akhmat vs FC Orenburg prediction and preview
23 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Akhmat host FC Orenburg in the Premier League (Russia) on 23 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.71, which the bookmaker market rated at about 57% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Akhmat had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 16 and conceding 18. FC Orenburg had won 3, drawn 5 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 17 scored and 12 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Akhmat's last 10 and 6 of FC Orenburg's last 10; 7 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Akhmat averaged 1.92 goals scored and 1.08 conceded across 13 matches; away from home FC Orenburg averaged 1.20 scored and 1.53 conceded across 15.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.47 goals from Akhmat and 1.14 from FC Orenburg. From that it rates a home win at 44%, a draw at 28% and an away win at 28%, against 48%, 27% and 25% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 54%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Akhmat (green) and FC Orenburg (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Akhmat | LLDLW | 1.60 | 1.80 | 70% | 70% |
| FC Orenburg | DWWLW | 1.70 | 1.20 | 60% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 75% | 1.30 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 74% | 1.29 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 70% | 1.35 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 69% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 67% | 1.42 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 55% | 1.72 |
| BTTS Yes | 54% | 1.71 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 50% | 1.93 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.