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UEFA Europa Cup - Women · International
Ajax W vs Malmö FF W prediction and preview
28 Oct 2026, 18:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Ajax W host Malmö FF W in the UEFA Europa Cup - Women (International) on 28 Oct 2026, 18:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 65% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Ajax W 1–2 Malmö FF W.
Going into the match, Ajax W had won 6, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 25 and conceding 10. Malmö FF W had won 8, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 10, with 21 scored and 7 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Ajax W's last 10 and 4 of Malmö FF W's last 10; 5 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Ajax W averaged 2.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded across 10 matches; away from home Malmö FF W averaged 1.80 scored and 0.87 conceded across 15.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.14 goals from Ajax W and 1.31 from Malmö FF W. From that it rates a home win at 31%, a draw at 30% and an away win at 39%, against 46%, 24% and 30% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 51%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Ajax W (green) and Malmö FF W (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ajax W | LWWWL | 2.50 | 1.00 | 40% | 50% |
| Malmö FF W | WWWWL | 2.10 | 0.70 | 40% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 76% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 76% | 1.21 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 72% | 1.26 |
| BTTS Yes | 65% | 1.40 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 56% | 1.63 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 52% | 1.82 |
| Ajax W Win | 46% | 1.95 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other UEFA Europa Cup - Women matches that day
- PSV/Eindhoven W vs Eintracht Frankfurt W · 28 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC · UEFA Europa Cup - Women
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.44 · FT 0–2 - Real Sociedad W vs Fenerbahce W · 28 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC · UEFA Europa Cup - Women
Published pick: Double Chance 1X · FT 2–0 - VfL Wolfsburg W vs Feyenoord W · 28 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC · UEFA Europa Cup - Women
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals · FT 7–0 - Brann W vs Czarni Sosnowiec W · 28 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC · UEFA Europa Cup - Women
Published pick: BTTS No @ 1.57 · FT 3–0 - Spartak Myjava W vs Hammarby W · 28 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC · UEFA Europa Cup - Women
Published pick: Double Chance X2 · FT 1–3