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Eredivisie · Netherlands
Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Ajax host NEC Nijmegen in the Eredivisie (Netherlands) on 10 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.57, which the bookmaker market rated at about 60% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Ajax 1–1 NEC Nijmegen.
Going into the match, Ajax had won 6, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 32 and conceding 16. NEC Nijmegen had won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 13 scored and 23 conceded.
Both teams scored in 8 of Ajax's last 10 and 7 of NEC Nijmegen's last 10; 9 and 8 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Ajax averaged 1.94 goals scored and 1.35 conceded across 17 matches; away from home NEC Nijmegen averaged 1.18 scored and 2.27 conceded across 11.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.70 goals from Ajax and 1.38 from NEC Nijmegen. From that it rates a home win at 65%, a draw at 18% and an away win at 17%, against 72%, 17% and 11% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 71%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Ajax (green) and NEC Nijmegen (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ajax | DWWLW | 3.20 | 1.60 | 80% | 90% |
| NEC Nijmegen | DLLDL | 1.30 | 2.30 | 70% | 80% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 73% | 1.28 |
| Ajax Win | 72% | 1.30 |
| BTTS Yes | 60% | 1.57 |
| Ajax 1st Half Win | 56% | 1.67 |
| Ajax HT & FT | 53% | 1.80 |
| 1st Half Over 1.5 Goals | 50% | 1.83 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 50% | 1.83 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.