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Division 2 - Norra Götaland · Sweden
Ahlafors vs Stenungsund prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Ahlafors host Stenungsund in the Division 2 - Norra Götaland (Sweden) on 10 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 64% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Ahlafors 1–3 Stenungsund.
Going into the match, Ahlafors had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 24 and conceding 9. Stenungsund had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 18 scored and 11 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Ahlafors's last 10 and 5 of Stenungsund's last 10; 5 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Ahlafors averaged 3.09 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Stenungsund averaged 1.58 scored and 1.75 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.34 goals from Ahlafors and 1.30 from Stenungsund. From that it rates a home win at 60%, a draw at 21% and an away win at 19%, against 59%, 21% and 21% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 67%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Ahlafors (green) and Stenungsund (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahlafors | WWLWL | 2.40 | 0.90 | 50% | 50% |
| Stenungsund | LWWLD | 1.80 | 1.10 | 50% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 12 Jun 2026 · Stenungsund 0–4 Ahlafors
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 77% | 1.20 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 72% | 1.30 |
| BTTS Yes | 64% | 1.44 |
| Ahlafors Win | 59% | 1.53 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 51% | 1.80 |
| Over 10.5 Corners | 50% | 1.83 |
| 2nd Half Higher Goals | 44% | 2.10 |
| Ahlafors HT & FT | 41% | 2.27 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.