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Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Spain
Águilas II vs Unión Molinense prediction and preview
4 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Águilas II host Unión Molinense in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 (Spain) on 4 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 12 — either side to win, with no draw. It was published at odds of 1.30, which the bookmaker market rated at about 72% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Águilas II 1–1 Unión Molinense.
Going into the match, Águilas II had won 4, drawn 5 and lost 0 of their last 9 matches, scoring 15 and conceding 11. Unión Molinense had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 14 scored and 12 conceded.
Both teams scored in 8 of Águilas II's last 9 and 4 of Unión Molinense's last 10; 6 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Águilas II averaged 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 5 matches; away from home Unión Molinense averaged 1.17 scored and 1.17 conceded across 6.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.37 goals from Águilas II and 1.36 from Unión Molinense. From that it rates a home win at 36%, a draw at 28% and an away win at 36%, against 31%, 28% and 41% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 72%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Águilas II (green) and Unión Molinense (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Águilas II | DDDDD | 1.67 | 1.22 | 89% | 67% |
| Unión Molinense | WLDWL | 1.40 | 1.20 | 40% | 30% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 11 Apr 2026 · Águilas II 2–1 Unión Molinense
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 72% | 1.30 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 67% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.43 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 55% | 1.70 |
| BTTS Yes | 50% | 1.86 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 45% | 2.10 |
| Unión Molinense Win | 41% | 2.20 |
| Unión Molinense HT & FT | 27% | 3.50 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.