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EFL Trophy · England
AFC Wimbledon vs Barnet prediction and preview
6 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
AFC Wimbledon host Barnet in the EFL Trophy (England) on 6 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 63% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: AFC Wimbledon 0–0 Barnet.
Going into the match, AFC Wimbledon had won 3, drawn 4 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 7 and conceding 12. Barnet had won 5, drawn 4 and lost 1 of their last 10, with 24 scored and 14 conceded.
Both teams scored in 3 of AFC Wimbledon's last 10 and 10 of Barnet's last 10; 3 and 8 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home AFC Wimbledon averaged 0.73 goals scored and 1.18 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Barnet averaged 1.88 scored and 1.25 conceded across 8.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.21 goals from AFC Wimbledon and 1.90 from Barnet. From that it rates a home win at 23%, a draw at 24% and an away win at 52%, against 40%, 26% and 34% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 62%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between AFC Wimbledon (green) and Barnet (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Wimbledon | DDWWL | 0.70 | 1.20 | 30% | 30% |
| Barnet | WWDDD | 2.40 | 1.40 | 100% | 80% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 78% | 1.20 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.25 |
| Double Chance 12 | 74% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 73% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 61% | 1.53 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 61% | 1.53 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.