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Non League Premier - Northern · England
AFC Emley vs Gainsborough Trinity prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
AFC Emley host Gainsborough Trinity in the Non League Premier - Northern (England) on 10 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.64, which the bookmaker market rated at about 56% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: AFC Emley 1–2 Gainsborough Trinity.
Going into the match, AFC Emley had won 0, drawn 4 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches, scoring 5 and conceding 27. Gainsborough Trinity had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 23 scored and 19 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of AFC Emley's last 10 and 7 of Gainsborough Trinity's last 10; 7 and 8 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home AFC Emley averaged 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded across 10 matches; away from home Gainsborough Trinity averaged 2.18 scored and 1.82 conceded across 11.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.92 goals from AFC Emley and 2.19 from Gainsborough Trinity. From that it rates a home win at 14%, a draw at 21% and an away win at 65%, against 24%, 24% and 53% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 54%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between AFC Emley (green) and Gainsborough Trinity (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Emley | LLLLL | 0.50 | 2.70 | 40% | 70% |
| Gainsborough Trinity | WLDWD | 2.30 | 1.90 | 70% | 80% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.47 |
| BTTS Yes | 56% | 1.64 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 55% | 1.67 |
| Gainsborough Trinity Win | 54% | 1.70 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 45% | 2.15 |
| Gainsborough Trinity HT & FT | 39% | 2.40 |
| Draw | 24% | 3.75 |
| 1-1 | 11% | 8.50 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.