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1. Division · Cyprus
AEK Larnaca vs Omonia Aradippou prediction and preview
12 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
AEK Larnaca host Omonia Aradippou in the 1. Division (Cyprus) on 12 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 65% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: AEK Larnaca 1–0 Omonia Aradippou.
Going into the match, AEK Larnaca had won 6, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 17 and conceding 9. Omonia Aradippou had won 4, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 14 scored and 12 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of AEK Larnaca's last 10 and 8 of Omonia Aradippou's last 10; 6 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home AEK Larnaca averaged 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded across 10 matches; away from home Omonia Aradippou averaged 1.00 scored and 0.83 conceded across 6.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.54 goals from AEK Larnaca and 0.69 from Omonia Aradippou. From that it rates a home win at 56%, a draw at 28% and an away win at 16%, against 63%, 22% and 15% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 81%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between AEK Larnaca (green) and Omonia Aradippou (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AEK Larnaca | WWWLW | 1.70 | 0.90 | 50% | 60% |
| Omonia Aradippou | DDWDW | 1.40 | 1.20 | 80% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 8 Aug 2026 · AEK Larnaca 0–1 Omonia Aradippou
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 80% | 1.22 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 78% | 1.20 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| AEK Larnaca Win | 65% | 1.45 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 56% | 1.70 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.