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Segunda División · Spain
AD Ceuta FC vs Sabadell prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 14:15 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
AD Ceuta FC host Sabadell in the Segunda División (Spain) on 10 Oct 2026, 14:15 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.33, which the bookmaker market rated at about 71% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: AD Ceuta FC 1–2 Sabadell.
Going into the match, AD Ceuta FC had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 12 and conceding 20. Sabadell had won 4, drawn 5 and lost 1 of their last 10, with 13 scored and 8 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of AD Ceuta FC's last 10 and 4 of Sabadell's last 10; 6 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home AD Ceuta FC averaged 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded across 10 matches; away from home Sabadell averaged 1.00 scored and 1.07 conceded across 15.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.87 goals from AD Ceuta FC and 1.54 from Sabadell. From that it rates a home win at 20%, a draw at 28% and an away win at 52%, against 28%, 30% and 42% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 71%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between AD Ceuta FC (green) and Sabadell (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AD Ceuta FC | DWDLL | 1.20 | 2.00 | 70% | 60% |
| Sabadell | DWLWW | 1.30 | 0.80 | 40% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| Double Chance X2 | 70% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 69% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 54% | 1.73 |
| BTTS Yes | 53% | 1.80 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 46% | 2.08 |
| Sabadell Win | 41% | 2.25 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.