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League Two · England
Accrington ST vs Cheltenham prediction and preview
3 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Accrington ST host Cheltenham in the League Two (England) on 3 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.22, which the bookmaker market rated at about 77% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Accrington ST 2–0 Cheltenham.
Going into the match, Accrington ST had won 1, drawn 5 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 15 and conceding 19. Cheltenham had won 4, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 19 scored and 17 conceded.
Both teams scored in 8 of Accrington ST's last 10 and 10 of Cheltenham's last 10; 7 and 9 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Accrington ST averaged 1.45 goals scored and 1.27 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Cheltenham averaged 2.00 scored and 1.43 conceded across 7.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.04 goals from Accrington ST and 1.07 from Cheltenham. From that it rates a home win at 59%, a draw at 23% and an away win at 18%, against 40%, 27% and 32% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 83%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Accrington ST (green) and Cheltenham (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accrington ST | DDDLW | 1.50 | 1.90 | 80% | 70% |
| Cheltenham | WDDWD | 1.90 | 1.70 | 100% | 90% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 77% | 1.22 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 77% | 1.22 |
| Double Chance 12 | 73% | 1.30 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| BTTS Yes | 58% | 1.62 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 54% | 1.75 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.