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FAW Championship · Wales
Aberystwyth Town vs Caerau (Ely) prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Aberystwyth Town host Caerau (Ely) in the FAW Championship (Wales) on 10 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.49, which the bookmaker market rated at about 62% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Aberystwyth Town 0–1 Caerau (Ely).
Going into the match, Aberystwyth Town had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 23 and conceding 11. Caerau (Ely) had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 25 scored and 22 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Aberystwyth Town's last 10 and 8 of Caerau (Ely)'s last 10; 7 and 8 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Aberystwyth Town averaged 2.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded across 5 matches; away from home Caerau (Ely) averaged 1.71 scored and 2.00 conceded across 7.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.11 goals from Aberystwyth Town and 1.23 from Caerau (Ely). From that it rates a home win at 57%, a draw at 23% and an away win at 21%, against 41%, 25% and 34% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 63%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Aberystwyth Town (green) and Caerau (Ely) (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aberystwyth Town | WDWWW | 2.30 | 1.10 | 60% | 70% |
| Caerau (Ely) | WWWWL | 2.50 | 2.20 | 80% | 80% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 74% | 1.22 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 73% | 1.25 |
| BTTS Yes | 62% | 1.49 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 59% | 1.56 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
| Aberystwyth Town Win | 42% | 2.20 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 42% | 2.25 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.60 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.