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Premiership · Scotland
Aberdeen vs ST Johnstone prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Aberdeen host ST Johnstone in the Premiership (Scotland) on 11 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.30, which the bookmaker market rated at about 73% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Aberdeen 0–1 ST Johnstone.
Going into the match, Aberdeen had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 15 and conceding 10. ST Johnstone had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 13 scored and 12 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Aberdeen's last 10 and 6 of ST Johnstone's last 10; 5 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Aberdeen averaged 1.64 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 11 matches; away from home ST Johnstone averaged 1.80 scored and 0.70 conceded across 10.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.19 goals from Aberdeen and 1.01 from ST Johnstone. From that it rates a home win at 39%, a draw at 32% and an away win at 30%, against 44%, 28% and 29% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 66%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Aberdeen (green) and ST Johnstone (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aberdeen | WDWDD | 1.50 | 1.00 | 40% | 50% |
| ST Johnstone | DLWDL | 1.30 | 1.20 | 60% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 73% | 1.30 |
| Double Chance 12 | 72% | 1.30 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| BTTS Yes | 54% | 1.75 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 51% | 1.91 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.