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Superliga · Denmark
Aarhus vs Sonderjyske prediction and preview
12 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Aarhus host Sonderjyske in the Superliga (Denmark) on 12 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 63% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Aarhus 3–0 Sonderjyske.
Going into the match, Aarhus had won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 17 and conceding 20. Sonderjyske had won 2, drawn 2 and lost 6 of their last 10, with 13 scored and 21 conceded.
Both teams scored in 8 of Aarhus's last 10 and 6 of Sonderjyske's last 10; 8 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Aarhus averaged 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded across 15 matches; away from home Sonderjyske averaged 1.27 scored and 2.09 conceded across 11.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.17 goals from Aarhus and 1.08 from Sonderjyske. From that it rates a home win at 61%, a draw at 22% and an away win at 17%, against 60%, 22% and 18% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 63%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Aarhus (green) and Sonderjyske (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aarhus | WDWLD | 1.70 | 2.00 | 80% | 80% |
| Sonderjyske | WLDLW | 1.30 | 2.10 | 60% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 3 May 2026 · Aarhus 2–1 Sonderjyske
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 79% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 75% | 1.25 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.25 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| Aarhus Win | 60% | 1.57 |
| BTTS Yes | 60% | 1.57 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.