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Eliteserien · Norway
Aalesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Aalesund host Sarpsborg 08 FF in the Eliteserien (Norway) on 11 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 68% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Aalesund 2–4 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Going into the match, Aalesund had won 3, drawn 4 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 30 and conceding 20. Sarpsborg 08 FF had won 3, drawn 4 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 14 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 8 of Aalesund's last 10 and 6 of Sarpsborg 08 FF's last 10; 7 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Aalesund averaged 2.11 goals scored and 2.22 conceded across 9 matches; away from home Sarpsborg 08 FF averaged 1.15 scored and 1.54 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.02 goals from Aalesund and 1.38 from Sarpsborg 08 FF. From that it rates a home win at 51%, a draw at 23% and an away win at 25%, against 39%, 25% and 36% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 66%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Aalesund (green) and Sarpsborg 08 FF (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aalesund | WDLWL | 3.00 | 2.00 | 80% | 70% |
| Sarpsborg 08 FF | WLDDD | 1.40 | 1.30 | 60% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 76% | 1.22 |
| Double Chance 12 | 75% | 1.25 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 71% | 1.33 |
| BTTS Yes | 68% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 54% | 1.73 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 53% | 1.73 |
| Over 3.5 Goals | 47% | 2.00 |
| Aalesund Win | 39% | 2.38 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.