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Torneo Federal A · Argentina
9 de Julio Rafaela vs Gimnasia Concepción prediction and preview
18 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
9 de Julio Rafaela host Gimnasia Concepción in the Torneo Federal A (Argentina) on 18 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.30, which the bookmaker market rated at about 72% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: 9 de Julio Rafaela 1–0 Gimnasia Concepción.
Going into the match, 9 de Julio Rafaela had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 12. Gimnasia Concepción had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 13 scored and 4 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of 9 de Julio Rafaela's last 10 and 1 of Gimnasia Concepción's last 10; 4 and 2 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home 9 de Julio Rafaela averaged 1.45 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Gimnasia Concepción averaged 0.45 scored and 0.91 conceded across 11.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.81 goals from 9 de Julio Rafaela and 0.85 from Gimnasia Concepción. From that it rates a home win at 30%, a draw at 37% and an away win at 33%, against 44%, 30% and 26% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 51%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between 9 de Julio Rafaela (green) and Gimnasia Concepción (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 de Julio Rafaela | LDLWW | 1.10 | 1.20 | 60% | 40% |
| Gimnasia Concepción | WLWLD | 1.30 | 0.40 | 10% | 20% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 11 Oct 2026 · Gimnasia Concepción 4–1 9 de Julio Rafaela
- 5 Jul 2026 · Gimnasia Concepción 3–0 9 de Julio Rafaela
- 3 May 2026 · 9 de Julio Rafaela 4–1 Gimnasia Concepción
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 74% | 1.25 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 69% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 67% | 1.40 |
| BTTS Yes | 52% | 1.80 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 52% | 1.80 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 48% | 2.00 |
| 9 de Julio Rafaela Win | 45% | 2.00 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.