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Liga Pro Serie B · Ecuador
22 de Julio vs El Nacional prediction and preview
7 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
22 de Julio host El Nacional in the Liga Pro Serie B (Ecuador) on 7 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance X2 — El Nacional to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.22, which the bookmaker market rated at about 75% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: 22 de Julio 2–5 El Nacional.
Going into the match, 22 de Julio had won 0, drawn 1 and lost 9 of their last 10 matches, scoring 6 and conceding 28. El Nacional had won 3, drawn 1 and lost 6 of their last 10, with 10 scored and 15 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of 22 de Julio's last 10 and 3 of El Nacional's last 10; 6 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home 22 de Julio averaged 0.55 goals scored and 1.73 conceded across 11 matches; away from home El Nacional averaged 1.14 scored and 2.00 conceded across 14.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.40 goals from 22 de Julio and 1.82 from El Nacional. From that it rates a home win at 29%, a draw at 25% and an away win at 47%, against 26%, 26% and 48% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 71%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between 22 de Julio (green) and El Nacional (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 de Julio | LDLLL | 0.60 | 2.80 | 40% | 60% |
| El Nacional | LLLWL | 1.00 | 1.50 | 30% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 12 Sep 2026 · El Nacional 3–0 22 de Julio
- 31 Jul 2026 · 22 de Julio 1–3 El Nacional
- 9 May 2026 · El Nacional 1–1 22 de Julio