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Friendlies Clubs · International
1. FC Nürnberg vs FC Ingolstadt 04 prediction and preview
2 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
1. FC Nürnberg host FC Ingolstadt 04 in the Friendlies Clubs (International) on 2 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 63% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: 1. FC Nürnberg 3–1 FC Ingolstadt 04.
Going into the match, 1. FC Nürnberg had won 7, drawn 3 and lost 0 of their last 10 matches, scoring 24 and conceding 12. FC Ingolstadt 04 had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 9 scored and 16 conceded.
Both teams scored in 8 of 1. FC Nürnberg's last 10 and 4 of FC Ingolstadt 04's last 10; 8 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home 1. FC Nürnberg averaged 2.25 goals scored and 0.88 conceded across 8 matches; away from home FC Ingolstadt 04 averaged 1.22 scored and 1.56 conceded across 9.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.59 goals from 1. FC Nürnberg and 1.19 from FC Ingolstadt 04. From that it rates a home win at 67%, a draw at 18% and an away win at 15%, against 55%, 23% and 21% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 73%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between 1. FC Nürnberg (green) and FC Ingolstadt 04 (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Nürnberg | WWDWD | 2.40 | 1.20 | 80% | 80% |
| FC Ingolstadt 04 | LLWLW | 0.90 | 1.60 | 40% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 75% | 1.22 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 72% | 1.28 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 61% | 1.48 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 58% | 1.58 |
| Under 9.5 Corners | 56% | 1.67 |
| 1. FC Nürnberg Win | 55% | 1.60 |
| 1. FC Nürnberg HT & FT | 38% | 2.40 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.